Special Briefing: Israel’s Strike on Iran

Yesterday at 5:16 PM EST, we launched (a word we chose carefully) a new paper titled: “Are We on the Brink of an Attack on Iran?” Within just three hours, we received a clear answer in the form of an unprecedented Israeli strike on Iran.

Israel’s opening move was militarily and tactically brilliant, and early indications suggest that the execution was nearly flawless. Still, Israel now enters a very difficult reality. Unlike in previous Israeli strikes, Iran

has no room for denial or a ladder to climb down. This was a direct hit on Iran’s nuclear project and military leadership - a severe blow to Iranian pride, the consequences of which will echo for a long time.

Historians tend to describe major events as the inevitable result of past decisions and dynamics, but in real time, there is almost always a choice. Not this time. A perfect storm had recently formed that made this strike unavoidable, despite the price Israel is expected to pay.

Israel faced two options: a nuclear Iran now, or a very bad deal that would have led to a nuclear Iran later. It is impossible to contain threats from an ideological regime whose core goal is the destruction of the State of Israel.

This is a historic, paradigm-shifting event not just for Israel. Israel is fighting the battle of Western civilization against fundamentalist Islamism. Still, we should not expect recognition of this fact from many Western democratic leaders.

From Israel’s perspective, the ultimate goal is regime change in Iran. It’s possible the war may accelerate internal social processes that challenge the regime, but we believe the likelihood of actual regime change in the near future is very low. Once the assault on Iran’s nuclear and missile projects is complete, the biggest question will be how to end the war. With no mediation mechanisms, and in light of the blow to Iranian honor, that will be a very complex-and likely prolonged mission.

The attack on Iran is the opening salvo of a new, prolonged, and complex campaign. Difficult days lie ahead, but don’t delude yourselves—this is not a war of choice.