The End of the Old Order: The Trump Doctrine, Regional Shifts, and Israel

The dramatic American operation in Venezuela was not merely an impressive show of force, but rather signaled the definitive burial of the world order we have known since 1945 and the rise of an old-new American strategy. Below is an analysis I presented at Galei Israel Radio Station this week regarding of this geopolitical upheaval and its implications for the State of Israel:

The Collapse of the Old Institutions

The global system established after World War II relied on two vectors that have since

become less relevant following the end of the Cold War: international institutions, led by the UN , and the bipolar balance of power. The attempt to generate stability through the UN has not worked since the end of the Cold War. Israel has become the ultimate victim of this failure, as these institutions have become structurally biased against it. Accordingly, under Trump, the US decided to stop financing a “failed” world order and to abandon the role of global policeman that disperses resources with no return.

The Trump Doctrine 2025: From Caprice to Strategy

If during Trump’s first term and the beginning of his current term American foreign policy was perceived at times as a collection of transactional “deals” rooted in personal charisma, the “National Security Strategy” document published in November 2025 turns it into a coherent doctrine. At the core of the doctrine lies the revival of the “Monroe Doctrine”: the US redefines its spheres of influence, within which it has demonstrated a willingness to apply concentrated and overwhelming force in order to advance its interests.

A World of “Backyards”

The new order may create an “inter-bloc stability” by establishing new rules that reduce the risk of a world war between China and the US, while simultaneously increasing the likelihood of regional conflicts. Under this paradigm, each great power is given legitimacy to “manage its own backyard.” This is particularly bad news for Taiwan, which may find that the US will assist logistically and by supplying weapon but will not go to war to defend it.

Spheres of Influence According to Trump

The most dramatic shift concerns spheres of influence. The Monroe Doctrine viewed the American sphere of influence as the Western Hemisphere, which included primarily the Americas and Europe. The operation in Venezuela demonstrates a return to a pursuit of exclusive influence in the Americas; however, the Trump administration views Europe as a “failed region” and is pulling its investments from it. Meanwhile, the Middle East is seen as a critical arena of competition with China and Russia due to its strategic importance to AI-related infrastructure and energy.

According to the National Security Strategy document, America’s status as an energy exporter enables it to reduce its involvement in “endless wars” and nation-building in the Middle East. Instead, the U.S. focuses on economic partnerships involving investments in artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and defense industries. The document notes that the US is committed to preventing hostile actors from dominating the region, its energy reserves, or its strategic waterways. Although the text may give the impression that the Middle East’s importance is diminishing, the Trump administration’s actions reveal that the “new Monroe Doctrine” assigns the region high strategic value. Indeed, the Middle East remains a theater where the United States has been, and still is, willing to apply military force, including against Iran.

The Middle Eastern Version of the “Monroe Doctrine”

American policy is triggering dramatic shifts in the regional balance of power. Already in May, during Trump’s visit to Qatar and Saudi Arabia, we noted the melting fown of the regional hegemonic rivalry between the Islamist axis led by Qatar and Turkey and the pro-Western axis led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE (link). It now appears that Saudi-Turkish coordination over Syria is tightening, while the Saudi-Emirati axis is unraveling, illustrated by Saudi airstrikes targeting Emirati weapons to factions supported by the UAE in Yemen. It is possible that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are dividing spheres of influence between them, a regional “Monroe Doctrine” — making them the main beneficiaries of the weakening pro-Iranian axis.

The Israeli Angle: Opportunity and Risk

The American document states that guaranteeing Israel’s security is a clear core US interest. A friendly president and a display of strength toward Iran constitute excellent security news, and there is little doubt that the American shift benefits Israel in the short term — yet storm clouds are already forming on Israel’s national security horizon.

The administration’s transactional policy could pose Israel with complicated future challenges, especially vis-à-vis actors such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. While Israel’s actions to collapse the “old” Iran-dominated regional order were critical, they are far less relevant to the formation of the emerging new order. As Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey strengthen their relationships with the US, Israel’s value as a corridor to the heart of the White House is no longer relevant. It is no surprise that Saudi Arabia now conditions normalization with Israel on concessions in the Palestinian arena — a condition it was prepared to forgo on the eve of October 7.

The US-Israel relations are also changing. It is likely that Netanyahu’s comment in this week’s interview with The Economist regarding a gradual reduction of American defense aid to Israel over the next decade was not an Israeli initiative, and such a shift carries dramatic implications for Israel’s national security.

Israel’s conduct as a regional power, culminating in the recognition of Somaliland and the possible establishment of a base near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — reflects a change in Israeli strategic posture. Israel’s alliance with the UAE is an important regional shaping force, as is its support for sub-state actors, particularly the Druze and Kurds in Syria. Yet in light of the global and regional reality, Israel must ensure that it remains a strategic asset to the US and that it advances hard American interests independent of the identity of the president or ruling party. Integration into the emerging regional order is key to preparing for the coming storms in Israel’s national security arena.

In other words, regional states that once sought out Israel, as in the Abraham Accords, largely as a pathway to Washington, now compel Israel to integrate into the region in order to ensure that Washington’s door remains open