top of page

What's Next after After High-Profile Assassinations?

drones in the night sky of a middle eastern city

The rationale behind Iran and its proxies' involvement is to assist Hamas by waging a limited war of attrition against Israel. They are not interested in a total war at this time. While the main arena is Gaza, Israel aimed to make Iran and its proxies pay the maximum possible price for their decision without sliding into war, hoping to at least return the northern residents to their homes. This dynamic has spiraled out of control.


Israel and the region are facing an escalation – this is an almost certain fact, and the question is what its scope will be and whether it will turn into a total war. Israel could not avoid responding to the murder of the children in Majdal Shams by Hizbullah, and seized a rare operational opportunity to target Hamas leader Haniyeh, a target marked since the beginning of the war. However, the proximity of the two incidents and their characteristics, in addition to the open account the Houthis have with Israel following the attach on the Hudeida Port last week, will almost certainly lead to a coordinated multi-front response.


In rounds of escalation, Israel's enemies have a strategic depth far greater than that of Israel, and therefore, in the long run, Israel's attrition from such rounds is significantly greater. Seemingly, the prospects of improving Israel's situation following the events of the last 24 hours are slim, as those assassinations by Israel will not bring Israel closer to decisively defeat its enemies. In the approximate round, Israel will emerge scratched and battered, without fundamentally changing its geo-strategic situation and its ability to cope with Iran and its proxies in the region.


However, such an analysis would be incomplete. Israel's main arena is still Gaza. Hamas estimated that Israel could not conduct long wars, for internal and external reasons. However, yesterday's events also highlight how dramatic the cumulative victories against Hamas are. Despite the sense of stagnation in a war , nearly ten months into the war, it is clear that Hamas' missile array has been severely damaged. Hundreds of kilometers of Hamas tunnels have been exposed and destroyed, Israel has cut off Hamas' lifeline at the Egyptian border, and almost the entire senior leadership of Hamas has been eliminated, including the important assassination of Haniyeh yesterday. The painful point is, of course, the hostages, but even here, it should be remembered that the war began with close to 250 hostages, and now their number stands at 115. All these achievements may lead Hamas to agree to a hostage deal under conditions that Israel can accept.


On the verge of achievements in the war with Hamas - which are by no means a 'complete victory' as described by the PM, but they may improve Israel's situation in the Gaza sector for the coming years -  there is a feeling that Israelis are shooting themselves in the foot. When representatives of the executive and legislative branches break into a military base of Sde Teiman, and when there is deep distrust in the policymakers' decisions regarding the management of the war and the hostage deal – there is a significant concern that "your destroyers and those who made you waste shall go forth from you."


Comments


bottom of page