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Hezbollah & Israel are out of sync: Conflict seems inevitable

Hezbollah has indicated from the start that it does not seek full-scale war. Though inflicting more casualties recently, it has limited firing range and reduced operation frequency, dropping from 13 to just 4 per day,

Israel aims to alter dynamics in the north and ensure safe return of residents near the border. It appears Israel would accept enforcing UN Resolution 1701, mandating Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River. This does not ideologically challenge Hezbollah, who may agree to avert full conflict.


The primary issue lies in the unlikelihood of reaching a settlement with Hezbollah before the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. Hezbollah's engagement in the conflict against Israel was not to negotiate its conclusion but as a show of solidarity with Hamas. Hezbollah's timeline is calibrated to "six after the war."

A watch in the rubble

Currently, the Israeli government faces mounting pressure from evacuees from the north. After initially setting aside the option of a preemptive strike at the war's beginning, it was apparent that Israel would not launch an offensive against Hezbollah while the Gaza conflict remained in high intensity. However, this phase is nearing its end, and a transition to a war of lower intensity is occurring, where military resources are managed and rationed in anticipation of potential escalations. Concurrently, as the situation in Gaza evolves, Israel is escalating tensions in the north. Israel's timeline is calibrated to “6 after the most intense phase of the war,” meaning a few more days or weeks.

Israel and Hezbollah have the potential for an agreement on a new arrangement in the north, but their timelines are out of sync.  A significant event may loom, influenced primarily by timing discrepancies.


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