The Dawn of a New Day

It was a historic night in which Trump’s America stood on the right side of history. Beyond projecting American (and Israeli) power, the significance is that, to the extent the bombing caused serious damage to Iran’s nuclear facility, Israel’s stated goal for launching the war has been achieved. There’s no doubt that Israel’s stunning opening strike on Iran enabled the American alignment at the decisive moment. It is important to remember that the U.S. didn’t do this for Israel’s interests, but first and foremost for its own.

As far as the nuclear project is concerned, the conditions now exist for Israel to wrap up the operation and end the war (perhaps aside from a few limited tactical strikes on specific targets). Even in dealing with the missile threat, after Israel succeeded in destroying more than half of the enemy’s launchers, any additional strike is expected to yield diminishing returns.

The problem, of course, is that while starting a war can be done unilaterally, ending it rarely can.

A Few Points and Dilemmas Moving Forward:

The Expected Iranian Response

The Iranian regime is not composed of suicidal fanatics.Their challenge now is to balance the fiery threats they made before the attack with the need to avoid a U.S counter-response that could further destabilize the regime. It’s worth noting that Iran’s ability to retaliate is now far more limited than it was. The expected closure of the Strait of Hormuz will also put Iran at a disadvantage against the American air fleet in the region.

The Proxy Question

The Houthis will almost certainly join the campaign, but it’s unclear whether this involvement will be a one-off or become ongoing. Hezbollah in Lebanon faces a major dilemma, and given its fragile situation in Lebanon, it’s hard to see it taking big risks, though nothing is certain. The Shiite militias are expected to act and target American interests in the region, though they too face heavy internal constraints.

War of Attrition

We disagree with experts who claim that Iran's strategy is to drag Israel into a war of attrition. Each day the Israeli Air Force enjoys uncontested access to Iranian airspace is a humiliating one for the regime, and with every passing day, the regime's assets continue to erode. Iran is not a terror organization occupying territory like the ones it funds  which operate according to an attritional logic against Israel. Therefore, in our view, Iran will likely look to respond and then bring the episode to an end. But when the game is zero-sum, finding a way out will be extremely difficult.

Between the Temptation to Topple the Regime and Entering a War of Choice

Now that the nuclear project has been hit, the Israeli temptation to act toward regime change in Iran, even if not an explicit goal, is growing. It is a highly complex objective over which Israel has no control. The potential gain from regime change is so great that it presents a dilemma of the “very high risk, very high reward” type. The danger for Israel is being drawn into a chronic, destructive war. Decision-makers would be wise to recognize that the strike on Fordow may also be a turning point in Israeli public opinion, and the consensus around the war (and the support of allies) will naturally begin to erode. If an attempt is made to eliminate Khamenei, we will know how this dilemma was resolved.

The Nuclear Project Has Two Components: Capability and Motivation

Israel and the U.S. have dealt a heavy blow to the project’s capabilities: to the scientists with the knowledge, to the facilities, the technology, and the materials. Still, it's likely that the damage is not total and could be restored within a few years. The question is what effect the attacks will have on Iran’s motivation. After the initial fury, the war might lead to increased Iranian determination to obtain “the bomb” — or, alternatively, to restraint.

History never offers a final, absolute happy ending.

Still, from a historical perspective, Israel's situation this morning is incomparably better than it was, even given the complex challenges and the difficult reality we are all facing

See our special war briefings:

Our Generation’s '67 Moment (& Where are We Heading from Here? (June 18, 2025)

Special Briefing: Israel’s Strike on Iran (June 13, 2025) Toppling the Iranian Regime: A Possible Mission? (June 15, 2025)