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Defeating Iran in Fordow, and Qatar at Harvard

  • dor742
  • 8 hours ago
  • 4 min read

One of the war's final acts in which Iran fires at Qatar, the two main sponsors of Hamas, is a symbolic sign of Israel’s achievements. Israel stopped in time and did not get dragged into a war of attrition whose goals are unrealistic. Even if the ceasefire will be fragile in the first days (as was proven yesterday morning), the event is nearing its end. Every day that the IDF controls Iran’s airspace and symbols of the regime are struck is a humiliating day for the regime. But much still depends on how Israel conducts itself from now on, both on the military and diplomatic fronts.

An Islamic crescent on arid land, painted with the Israeli flag

 

The military arena

Israel has significantly diminished Iran’s capabilities in the nuclear field. While there is a debate in the media, in regards to the effectiveness of the strikes, it is clear to us that it is unlikely that the Iranians will rush to rebuild the nuclear project before they rebuild their air defense system, or before Trump’s exit from the political stage. And therefore, even if there exists a stockpile of enriched uranium that was not destroyed, Israel has pushed back the nuclear project by (the very least) several good years. An Iranian diplomatic offensive is indeed expected, aimed at “proving” that Israel made a mistake by attacking Iran. For example, Iran may withdraw from the nuclear treaty that allowed international oversight by the IAEA. And still, Israel’s achievements are clear.


The war may accelerate the dismantling of the pro-Iranian proxy system in its current form. Apart from the missile array, the Iranian army was neglected, and the equipment it uses is very outdated. The reason is that in Iranian perception, the proxies were supposed to keep the war away from Iran’s borders. The Iranian army was not expected to take a significant part in fighting. But the proxy perception “flipped” on Iran. Hamas ignited a chain reaction on October 7 that ended with Israeli fighter jets circling freely over Tehran. Hezbollah, the crown jewel of the proxy system, was built over four decades to play a central role precisely in a scenario in which Iran is attacked – and it went silent at the moment of truth. And therefore, it is very likely that we will see much greater investment in the Iranian army in the coming years at the expense of the proxies. For Israel, the meaning is dealing with more local and weakened enemies – and this is an encouraging message.


Israel will not be able to implement the prevention of Iranian armament according to the Lebanon model, that is, through repeated airstrikes aimed at thwarting its missile-force buildup. Iran will respond to attacks against it, and the war of attrition that will develop will eventually harm Israel. And therefore, we may see a return to the shadow war like before the war.


The political arena


Victory in war depends much more on the trends that develop afterward than on the results on the battlefield. Israel’s starting point is excellent, but political wisdom is required to maximize the victory that will ensure Israel’s existence for years to come.


After Israel ‘enjoyed’ two weeks of attention being diverted from what is happening in Gaza, it will discover that international focus is returning there, and not in circumstances favorable to it. This is because in the meantime Israel has become, in the eyes of many voters of the Democratic Party in the U.S., as well as many Republican voters who advocate an isolationist line, the ultimate symbol of one who threatens to drag the U.S. into a world war.


Moreover, Israel is now perceived as a regional power, a fact that may improve its deterrence in the region, and at the same time give a boost to delegitimization and antisemitic trends spreading in the West, encouraged by Qatar, which relies on cataloging Israel as a colonialist and aggressive state.


And therefore, in order to ‘complete’ the victory over Iran, and also to get ahead of the expected deterioration in the political-public arena, Israel must and can leverage its achievements by leading moves that stand in contradiction to Iran’s fundamentalist ideology on the one hand, and at the same time refute the frameworks of discourse in the West that label Israel as a colonialist warmongering power.


With political wisdom, Israel can and should use the momentum and present a vision for a new Middle East that unites within it the moderate and pro-Western Muslim states – of which Iran is the enemy. This vision should include, among other things, normalization with Saudi Arabia; legitimizing a land trade route in which Israel is a part as an alternative to the Red Sea route; integration and leadership of Israel in transforming the Middle East into a center of investment and AI technology development, which stood at the heart of Trump’s visit to Riyadh. Such a vision would allow Israel to apply greater leverage on the donor states conditioning Gaza’s rehabilitation on its demilitarization – and therefore increase the chances of reaching a deal that will bring the hostages home.


All these would constitute an ideological defeat for Iran, and they will also undermine the framing of Israel as a foreign implant in the region. That is how Israel can defeat Iran in Fordow, and Qatar at Harvard.

See our special war briefings: The Dawn of a New Day (June 22, 2025)

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