Are We on the Brink of an Attack on Iran?

This isn’t the first time tensions have escalated around a potential Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but this time it feels real. For the first time in two decades, the International Atomic Energy Agency has declared that Iran is not meeting its commitments for nuclear oversight, as required by the international treaty it signed. In response, Iran announced it would open a new enrichment site equipped with upgraded centrifuges. All actors in the region are conducting defense and offense drills, and neighboring countries are bracing for impact.

The reason the region is now at a tipping point is that there’s no possibility of a good deal, only a bad one, or no deal at all. What brought the region to this moment of truth wasn’t Trump’s decision to set a timeline for negotiations, but rather the maturity of Iran’s nuclear program, which now effectively makes Iran a nuclear-threshold state.

Trump’s America appears determined to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear and insists that Iran must not enrich uranium - even at low levels. Iran, for its part, does not want war now, but any agreement that forbids it from low-level enrichment would be viewed domestically as a national humiliation. "Honor" is a key factor in Iran’s national security doctrine. Furthermore, Iran’s strategic interest lies in reaching an agreement that allows it to revive its nuclear program after Trump leaves office -based on the belief that any other U.S. president would take the military option off the table. A full dismantling of the Iranian nuclear project based on the Libyan model would deny Iran this possibility.

Meanwhile, Israel understands that Iran is at a historically vulnerable point that may not return. An enemy whose declared core aim is the destruction of Israel cannot be “contained.” The fact that Israel is already engaged in a prolonged conflict is, paradoxically, an opportunity rather than a constraint. Post–October 7th Israel is no longer eager to “buy” temporary calm at the cost of an uncertain future.

And then, the political paradox: had the government lost tonight’s no-confidence vote in the Knesset, many would have claimed that it was planning a war with Iran to ensure its political survival. But now that it has secured its position for another six months, an Israeli move against Iran could garner broad public support - creating the perfect storm.

The difficult days ahead are not merely a forecast of a tactical military clash - they signal the end of a strategic era. An Israeli operation in Iran would not be an isolated event or the end of a problem, but rather the opening shot of a new, prolonged, and complex campaign. Its success will not be measured by the destruction of facilities, but by the establishment of a new security doctrine -one that moves from prevention and risk management to actively shaping reality.

Am Israel Chai!