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The First Iranian war

The Iranian plan is outlined in a book written by Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei himself in 2015, which was later translated into an action plan by Qasem Soleimani. Based on this book and our analysis of Iran's modus operandi, we have written sent policy papers, op-eds and used social media to outline the Iranian strategy:  

  • Equip Hamas and Islamic Jihad to lead "ground operations", accompanied by "massive waves of civilian migration" .

  • Utilizing the "ring of fire" surrounding Israel to launch tens of thousands of rockets from a vast area that includes primarily Lebanon, and potentially also Syria Yemen, Iraq, and Iran itself.

  • The D-day was set to be scheduled only after Iran becomes a nuclear threshold state, which it now possesses.

  • Iran's strategy fundamentally relies on the belief that the Israeli societal fabric is fragile, and a prolonged war would be unsustainable for Israel. This erosion of social cohesion will eventually lead to its collapse. This insight was pivotal in my decision to establish Atchalta.


Over the past few months, we have consistently highlighted that D-Day is imminent due to the surprising fast convergence of a few processes:

  • The social polarization in Israel was seen as a unique historical opportunity to be capitalized upon.

  • In recent months, Iran has reached a nuclear threshold, granting it protection from severe or unconventional responses.

  • Iran has successfully forged an alliance with Hamas and Hezbollah, termed the "Unification of Fronts". This has been on the background of successful attempts to agitate the West Bank.

  • The process of normalization with Saudi Arabia created a sense of urgency.

Iranian rockets

In his book the supreme leader of Iran Khamenei describes cycles of assaults over time that will break the spirit of Israeli society. The involvement of Hezbollah in its current war is evident, yet its extent is unclear yet. It's possible that even the Iranians haven't decided and are waiting to see how events unfold.


On a more optimistic note, the Iranians made one critical mistake: Iranians acted prematurely, creating a historic opportunity to restore social cohesion against a common enemy and eliminate this threat to Israel. They also may have failed to assess the overwaiving support of the US who is shipping its aircraft carriers to the region. I will elaborate on this in my upcoming posts.


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