The End of the Special Relationship

The emerging U.S. deal with Iran is not just another crisis in U.S.–Israel relations. It signals the end of the special relationship between the two countries, and the beginning of a new era in Israel’s national security. This is the endpoint of a trend that has been unfolding gradually but steadily for years — only it has arrived somewhat earlier than expected, while Trump is still in office.

Israel’s status as a bipartisan consensus in the United States has been badly eroded. This is largely the result of internal American dynamics, though the Netanyahu government’s policies have also played a role. Among Democrats, support for Israel has not disappeared, but Israel’s popularity has fallen sharply. Among Republicans, too, internal shifts on the American right have led some to turn against Israel. This is especially true of the party’s isolationist wing, with which Vice President Vance is closely associated. See our thoughts on this from May here.

As a result, Israel has gradually lost its place as a cross-party consensus in American politics. It has become the ultimate litmus test and fault line — not only between the two parties, but also within each of them.

What Israel Stands to Lose

The special relationship has been a cornerstone of Israel’s national security. Its roots go back to the Eisenhower administration, when Israel came to be seen as both an embodiment of shared values and a strategic asset for the United States. That perception deepened after the Six-Day War, and was most clearly reflected in the American airlift during the Yom Kippur War and in the accelerated military assistance Israel received after October 7.

The economic aid Israel received from the United States was used in part to stimulate the Israeli economy and support the absorption of new Olim, and in part for security needs. After the peace treaty with Egypt, Israel became the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid. Beginning in 1998, economic aid to Israel was gradually phased out, and since 2008 Israel has received only military assistance.

The special relationship also meant preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge over its regional neighbors. The United States avoided arms sales that could upset the strategic balance. Israel’s Defense Ministry maintains a permanent procurement mission in New York, which is in constant contact with American counterparts over the state of Israel’s munitions stockpiles. Israeli operations are usually coordinated with the United States, or at the very least reported to Washington in real time. There is a red phone, no promises about the color, connecting the Pentagon and the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv.

Israel and the United States have deep military ties. They hold joint exercises and develop weapons systems together, including Iron Dome and the Arrow missile. Israel’s decision to freeze the Lavi fighter jet project was also a concession made in recognition of the importance of the special relationship. The two countries share intelligence, and even Israel’s nuclear policy has been coordinated with the United States from the start: President Nixon and Golda Meir reached an understanding under which Washington would tolerate Israel’s nuclear option and exempt it from signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in exchange for Israel’s commitment to maintain ambiguity on the issue.

The special relationship survived even as the areas of disagreement widened, especially over the Palestinian issue, settlement policy, Iran, and the conduct of the war in Gaza. It survived even after Obama broke with tradition by declining to veto — as the United States had almost automatically done until then — anti-Israel resolutions at the UN Security Council.

None of this means that all the benefits described above will disappear tomorrow morning. But this is what is now at stake. In Israel, the shift has been felt for a long time. The government’s move to initiate the end of American military aid shows that someone there has read the map, even if rather late. Israel will now try to recast itself as a strategic security asset for the United States, while becoming far more self-reliant when it comes to munitions and weapons stockpiles. There is no turning this back: a new and highly uncertain era in Israel’s national security is beginning.

A Fool’s Prophecy

As the famous line goes, it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

Still, if we had to bet, we would expect the U.S.–Iran deal eventually to collapse, because the Iranians will not know when to stop and take the win. Iran and Israel’s enemies will try to pin the blame on Israel, but either way Trump will once again be cast as Israel’s savior and friend. Some will attribute the reversal to his wisdom and unwavering commitment to Israel. But it will be the accidental swan song of the special relationship — and if not the very last note, then something very close to it.

That’s it folks. It’s over.